SPC MD 963

MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278… FOR W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL OK…S CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL OK...S CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278...

VALID 050736Z - 050900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD
THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NRN OK/SRN KS...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG/SEVERE MCS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD AT CLOSE
TO 40 KT ACROSS NW/N CENTRAL OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN KS...WITH
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING S OF THE WATCH BETWEEN FSI AND OKC.
THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS IS MOVING THROUGH THE MOST FAVORABLE STORM
ENVIRONMENT NOW...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH TIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS IN OK.  STILL...THE
40 KT LLJ OBSERVED IN LOCAL PROFILER/VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT STRONG
ASCENT ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND COULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL SWD
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO I-40 IN W CENTRAL OK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  LONGER TERM...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL
AND NE OK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE
10Z WATCH EXPIRATION.  HOWEVER...THE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL PROSPECTS
SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL BY THAT TIME /09-10Z/...SUCH THAT THE NEED
FOR A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT CLEAR.

FARTHER NW INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE...SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF ELEVATED ASCENT ABOVE THE COLD POOL TRAILING
THE MCS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS
THEY DEVELOP SEWD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A NEW WW FOR THIS
AREA APPEARS UNLIKELY.

..THOMPSON/GOSS.. 06/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36709805 37259819 37409818 37669790 37769759 37719694
            37439660 36679645 36079653 35699685 35509716 35299785
            35259828 35269882 35409959 35830073 36360162 36310241
            36400267 36670270 36850247 36910190 36790122 36590076
            36239954 36079888 36199831 36419821 36709805

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0963.html