SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE/NORTHERN PLAINS... APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER JET AND AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MINIMAL CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT LIKELY ON AN INCREASINGLY SPORADIC BASIS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...LAKE MI VICINITY/LOWER MI... A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ALBEIT MINORING/ AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE REGIONAL AIRMASS IS COOL/DRY PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR SOME TSTMS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS LOWER MI. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS MAY EXIST LATE IN THE PERIOD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF KS/EASTERN NEB INTO MO/IA. WHILE ELEVATED MOISTURE/CAPE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL GENERALLY BE VERY MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH...MAINTENANCE OF A SUB-10 PERCENT TSTM FORECAST TONIGHT APPEARS APPROPRIATE FOR THESE AREAS. ..GUYER.. 10/17/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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