SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398

WW 398 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 160015Z – 160600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHEAST COLORADO
       NORTHWEST KANSAS
       SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLAND
KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...WW 396...WW 397...

DISCUSSION...ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF
LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE IN NORTHEAST CO. AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THIS
CONVECTION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD FUEL ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DEVELOPMENT. MASS
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF
25-30KT...BASED ON  REGIONAL VWPS...WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SMALL MCS EVOLVING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...CARBIN

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