WW 429 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 221855Z – 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
TULSA OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES EAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED
AMIDST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW TO SE FROM NERN OK ACROSS SCNTRL
AR. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SPUR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM KS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
MODEST W-NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30KT...EXPECT CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZATION AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER STORMS
WILL MERGE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM OR REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...A WATCH IS WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...CARBIN
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0429.html
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