SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468

WW 468 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 051910Z – 060300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  EASTERN COLORADO
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...GRAVITY WAVES APPEAR TO HAVE SUPPORTED INITIATION OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS OTHERWISE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT AN UPPER IMPULSE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA MAY PROVIDE THE
SUPPORT FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF
A LARGER STORM CLUSTER AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  CAPE IS LARGE AND SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 20-30 KT WESTERLY 500
MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONAL TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE DISCRETE INITIAL STORMS...BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.


...KERR

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0468.html