SPC Tornado Watch 6

WW 6 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 291325Z – 292100Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
       EASTERN KANSAS
       WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
       NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
300 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING INVOLVING
A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA.  CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE LINE SEGMENT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION...RESULTING IN A LARGER-SCALE QLCS WHICH WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE
SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...MEAD

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0006.html