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| Mesoscale Discussion 138 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas to western Missouri
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 170757Z - 171200Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to increase in coverage over the
next several hours across southeast Kansas into western Missouri.
Freezing rain rates up to 0.1 inch per 2 hours are probable for the
next 1-2 hours given the convective nature of the precipitation.
DISCUSSION...Several ASOS/AWOS observing sites across southern KS
have begun to report freezing rain over the past 1-2 hours. Several
MPING reports of sleet and freezing rain support these trends as
convective showers and weak thunderstorms move across the region.
These observations are in line with latest RAP mesoanalysis, which
shows maximum wet bulb temperatures between 4-8 C above sub-freezing
temperatures at the surface. Temperatures have been falling at about
3-5 F per hour as a cold front shifts south, so many locations not
already below freezing should fall below 32 F within the next 1-2
hours. As this occurs, freezing rain will likely become more
widespread across the region given a persistent warm nose aloft.
Regional reflectivity mosaics show increasing stratiform
precipitation behind the initial round of convection that is
currently over the region. Freezing rain rates (possibly up to 0.1
inch per 2 hours) will be highest over the next couple of hours as
heavier precipitation/thunderstorms move across the region, but
continued freezing rain appears likely through the early morning
hours before a change over to snow occurs closer to sunrise.
..Moore.. 02/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37639824 38199767 38669693 38949601 39119459 38789398
38129391 37809457 37659542 37399615 37189680 37139757
37179815 37639824
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