Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1433

   Mesoscale Discussion 1433
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico through portions of the OK/TX
   Panhandles and into western Kansas and far southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 072034Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1
   to 2 hours with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch
   will likely be needed to cover the threat.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front can be seen clearly on visible satellite
   imagery, in some places from the presence of surface based cu, but
   primarily due the large region of smoke present behind the front.
   The front now extends from far southwest Nebraska across far
   northwest Kansas to near Raton Mesa. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that
   CINH has mostly eroded across the region. In addition, in the last
   30 minutes more post frontal convection has been observed across
   eastern Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border indicating the
   deeper ascent is likely spreading eastward and should interact with
   the front shortly. Also, high-based convection in far northeast New
   Mexico is starting to show more vertical development as temperatures
   have risen to near 100 degrees which matches the convective
   temperature from forecast soundings. This all points toward more
   widespread thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2 hours. The
   stronger storms are expected in western Kansas where instability is
   greatest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) and where the strongest deep-layer
   shear is present (40-45 kts). In this region, supercells are
   expected to congeal into one or more clusters which may pose a
   damaging wind threat through the evening hours. A severe
   thunderstorm watch is likely by 21Z.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   34820208 35510296 36870298 38560234 39410115 39699964
               39549931 38579947 36140083 34820208