Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1502

   Mesoscale Discussion 1502
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

   Areas affected...Far northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122030Z - 122200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
   into the evening across northeast Kansas and northern and central
   Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level convection which has been present across
   northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the morning and early
   afternoon has started to sag south. As it does, it will continue to
   interact with a more unstable airmass. Effective shear is very weak
   across the region with mostly less than 20 knots of flow sampled
   through the troposphere from the KTWX VWP. However, the
   thermodynamic environment downstream is quite favorable with MLCAPE
   around 3500 J/kg, mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, and DCAPE
   around 1300 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, the weak shear
   should limit an organized severe threat, but the favorable
   thermodynamic profile could support isolated large hail and severe
   wind gusts. 

   The isolated nature of the threat should limit the need for a watch,
   but trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39549523 39939355 40069243 39659156 39009136 38589176
               38399283 38449485 38939535 39549523