Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1731

   Mesoscale Discussion 1731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado...far western
   Kansas...and far southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122144Z - 122315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...There will be an isolated threat of severe wind gusts into
   the evening across portions of the central High Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the Colorado Front Range in
   an area of weak upslope flow. Moisture is somewhat limited with
   surface dewpoints in the 40s, but temperatures have warmed into the
   upper 80s to low 90s which has generated sufficient instability for
   occasional strong updrafts with some organization given around 35
   knots of effective shear per KFTG VWP. Given the hot boundary layer
   and steep lapse rates, severe wind gusts will be possible with any
   of this activity. The best chance for these stronger gusts will
   likely be farther away from the terrain where dewpoints are in the
   low 50s which yields slightly higher instability around 500 J/kg.
   Any threat is expected to remain isolated, therefore, no severe
   thunderstorm watch is anticipated.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39660409 40190352 40570230 40190174 38770163 37540190
               37450295 37860367 39660409