Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1734

   Mesoscale Discussion 1734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0703 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130003Z - 130130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind threat continues across eastern
   Colorado and may continue into western Kansas before weakening after
   sunset.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms across Lincoln County has shown
   increasing intensity over the past hour as it moves into a more
   favorable airmass with MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg and decreasing
   inhibition per SPC mesoanalysis. Further support for the lowering
   CINH can be seen by the high based cumulus across eastern Colorado
   on visible satellite imagery. Very steep low and mid-level lapse
   rates will continue to support a severe wind threat with this
   activity, but the threat should start to wane after sunset as the
   boundary layer starts to significantly cool and CINH starts to
   increase once again.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39370340 39780275 39630152 38700152 37770194 37480273
               37570322 37910353 38410359 39370340