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| Mesoscale Discussion 1769 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021
Areas affected...far northeast Kansas through northern and central
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 201915Z - 202115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over far northeast
Kansas by 20Z, likely evolving into a line as they continue east
through northern Missouri into the evening. Locally strong to severe
wind gusts will be the primary threat, though a few instances of
hail may also occur in the stronger storms. A severe thunderstorm
watch might be needed for this region by 20-21Z.
DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front extends from western
IA through northeast KS near Topeka, then farther southwest near
Wichita. The downstream warm sector has become moderately unstable
with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE as surface temperatures climb through the
80s along with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. Deeper forcing and
stronger winds aloft attending a northern-stream shortwave trough
will remain north of this region. Nevertheless, forcing for ascent
within frontal zone should become sufficient to initiate storms over
northeast KS as the boundary layer continues to destabilize and any
remaining convective inhibition weakens. Vertical wind profiles with
30-35 kt effective bulk shear will support multicell storm modes,
with storms likely to eventually evolve into line segments along the
front. The stronger storms will become capable of producing strong
to damaging gusts, especially as they continue east through northern
MO later this afternoon into the evening.
..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37899444 38349489 39159508 39859494 40399440 40539320
40399249 39749209 38859236 38229286 37889363 37899444
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