Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 443

   Mesoscale Discussion 0443
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0931 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

   Areas affected...Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114...

   Valid 280231Z - 280330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is noted in the line of storms
   moving across northeast Kansas. However, severe hail and wind will
   remain possible for the next few hours across Watch 114.

   DISCUSSION...A convective line continues to move to the
   east/northeast across northwest KS and into far southwest NE.
   Several severe wind and hail reports have been noted with this line,
   and MRMS echo tops show stronger embedded pulses that will continue
   to pose a hail threat in the near term. Additionally, the strong
   low-level shear (around 40-50 knots of 0-3 km bulk shear per RAP
   mesoanalysis) oriented nearly orthogonal to the cold pool will
   continue to support a damaging wind risk. However, IR trends over
   the past hour have shown a gradual warming trend in cloud top
   temperatures, suggesting that the overall intensity of the line may
   be waning as it migrates towards the northern fringe of the more
   favorable instability and towards a more capped environment. In
   general, this trend is expected to continue over the next few hours
   and the severe risk will likely become confined to stronger impulses
   embedded within the line - most likely along the KS/NE state line
   where the instability/shear parameter space will remain most
   favorable for organized convection.

   ..Moore.. 04/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39360197 40000204 40500197 40940125 41090018 40859948
               40249952 39699957 39249991 39220073 39230162 39360197