SPC MD 1030

MD 1030 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR S CNTRL/SERN KANSAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231740Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...UPSCALE GROWING/INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS BY 20-22Z.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
INTENSITY IS ONGOING NEAR/EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO AREAS SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF GREAT BEND.  THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED OR ENHANCED IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.

BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A SEASONABLY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE.  STORMS MAY
STILL BE GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...THIS
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH 18-21Z...AS INHIBITION FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS STEADILY WEAKENS WITH INSOLATION.

DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE WEAK...BUT
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT INCREASING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
...STRENGTHENING/CONSOLIDATING SURFACE COLD POOL AND REAR INFLOW. 
THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...WITH A
TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

..KERR/GUYER.. 06/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38809802 38699617 38149481 37109503 37309722 37179881
            37389935 38169961 38809802 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/28PADdf