MD 1035 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329… FOR PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Areas affected...Portions of Missouri and southern Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329... Valid 142311Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms across northeastern Missouri and western Illinois will likely progress southeast over the next few hours, with an attendant threat of gusty, damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Farther southwest, confidence in thunderstorm development over the next few hours has decreased. However, storms may develop across far western portions of the watch later this evening. DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue to evolve near the Mississippi River this afternoon, aided by large-scale ascent from a weak passing impulse. Ongoing convective development and merging cold pools may yield a stronger southeastward push of convection over the next few hours, with an attendant threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Farther southwest, satellite trends suggest convective initiation appears less probable, as the cumulus field has thinned on the backside of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Therefore, the potential for severe convection across much of the SGF CWA may be waning. Across northwestern portions of the watch, cumulus development has remained a little more robust and high-res guidance suggests more vigorous convection may develop later this evening across western Kansas and northwest Missouri, perhaps in response to a weak upstream impulse. As such convective trends will be monitored here for potential new watch issuance. ..Picca.. 06/14/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38139534 39229492 39959404 40209200 40199031 40028894 39288833 38528848 38058990 37669254 37749513 38139534
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