SPC MD 1036

MD 1036 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292… FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292...

VALID 232315Z - 240115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINING
PORTIONS OF WW 292...AND AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...A NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL/OUTFLOW IN THE
REGION.  DEEP SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING THAT INDIVIDUAL CORES THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT AS THE COLD POOL ADVANCES
EASTWARD.  IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS COLD
POOL IS DUE PRIMARILY TO THERMODYNAMIC MECHANISMS. 
NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE TO STRONG PRE-CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
/EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG MUCAPE IN SOME AREAS/ IS SUSTAINING THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY EAST.  NEWER INITIATION DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS COLD POOL WILL POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT ALSO
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI /AND OUT
OF WW 292/ BY AROUND 01Z.  BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT
MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 292 AS THE THREAT SHIFTS EASTWARD. 
ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH DUSK ALONG THE
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THIS
THREAT SEEMS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION WITH SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD EXTENT.

..COOK/EDWARDS.. 06/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38549635 38939595 39049536 38959464 38619390 38139337
            37499314 36929334 36549414 36599506 36619601 36269687
            35869764 35819812 36059840 36429797 36929739 37459705
            38549635 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/28R23QB