MD 1043 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332… FOR MUCH OF KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Areas affected...Much of Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332... Valid 152029Z - 152230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332 continues. SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332 remains in effect. DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development has been underway in Ellis and Trego Counties -- along a west-east boundary. A supercell-cluster mode has typified this activity, and continued upshear development and expanding/amalgamating, convectively generated cold pools may breed upscale growth of this activity during the next couple of hours. The Hays KS AWOS has already measured a 53-kt gust. As such, a bowing MCS could materialize across parts of central KS during the next couple of hours as this activity spreads downshear. The MCS would spread east-southeastward and southeastward into the evening -- aided by preferential cell development on the southern and eastern flanks of the growing cold pool where strongly buoyant inflow exists. The special 18Z sounding from Topeka KS indicates around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and even more substantial MLCAPE exists with southward extent from the boundary where dewpoints have not mixed out as much. The 17Z Lamont OK sounding indicates around 50 kt of effective shear, suggesting increasing potential in forward-propagating MCS formation. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph winds are expected -- enhanced in conjunction with line-embedded mesovortices. If confidence in a more precise corridor of damaging/destructive winds were to become apparent, it is possible that some consideration could be given to the issuance of a Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch. More isolated convection backbuilding along the boundary in western KS may also pose severe potential into parts of southwest KS during the next few hours. Furthermore, splitting supercells south of the area -- across parts of Watch 333 -- may eventually develop into parts of far south-central KS later this afternoon, with severe hail/wind potential. ..Cohen.. 06/15/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37669540 37109619 37059939 37720080 38670089 39569978 39909762 39759604 38859529 37669540
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