MD 1064 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339…341… FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Areas affected...Portions of the mid Missouri Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...341... Valid 170227Z - 170430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339, 341 continues. SUMMARY...A line of significant severe thunderstorms will continue accelerating south/southeast this evening, maintaining the potential for a swath of damaging winds (some gusts over 80 mph), large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. This line will likely reach the Kansas City metro after 11pm CDT. DISCUSSION...A mature complex of powerful thunderstorms is racing southeast this evening, into an axis of strong instability characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 4500 J/kg. Indeed, the 00Z TOP sounding sampled an excessively wide mid-level buoyancy profile amidst a favorable deep-layer wind profile veering with height. Rich boundary-layer moisture will temper nocturnal cooling such that this high buoyancy (with little inhibition) will be maintained for the next few hours. As such, these significant severe storms are expected to maintain their intensity as they continue pushing southeast. Furthermore, a strengthening low-level jet will likely enhance both downwind and upwind propagation this evening, maintaining the threat of powerful damaging wind gusts. Upstream observations confirm this severe potential, with Lincoln, NE reporting a 76kt (87mph) gust at 0137Z (837pm CDT). Significant severe wind gusts (upwards of 80mph), large hail, and a tornado or two will remain possible with this line as it advances towards the Kansas City metro area over the next two hours. ..Picca.. 06/17/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40559813 41369619 41249448 39899364 38629332 38349351 38269486 38619625 39539739 40099815 40559813
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