MD 1101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…NORTHEASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302155Z - 010030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION AND UPSCALE
GROWTH.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. RICH MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG DESPITE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF ONLY 6-7 C/KM.
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR-SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AND WEAKER
700-300-MB FLOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LARGEST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...IT REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK...25-35 KT AT BEST...AND IS EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. A FACTOR SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS MODERATE DCAPE
OF 900-1100 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED COLD
POOL DEVELOPMENT AND LOOSELY-ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH...PARTICULARLY
OVER OKLAHOMA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFTING
CONDENSATION LEVELS ARE MAXIMIZED AND RECENT ESRL HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO THE EVENING. WHILE PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SVR COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
..CONIGLIO/COHEN/GUYER.. 06/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 38759348 38599309 38269295 37809282 37389299 37149318
36659397 36229489 35939603 35729722 35729758 35949778
36399796 36629790 36719786 37039759 37289703 37579646
37839603 38249553 38569498 38779442 38819381 38759348
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1iTHpNe
Be First to Comment