MD 1123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SERN CO…NERN NM…AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO...NERN NM...AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031946Z - 032145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SEWD. WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SHORT-TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO INTO N-CNTRL NM. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL NELY/ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE COMBINED WITH A SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVER THE MCD AREA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS IS
PRESENT ACROSS SERN CO INTO NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PER 19Z
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO RANGE
FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WEAK NELY/ELY SFC WINDS VEER AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
20-30 KT AROUND 500 MB...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50-60
KT NEAR THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE. RECENT RUNS OF THE PARALLEL HRRR
SUGGEST INITIAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
CO/NERN NM MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
MOVING SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL CONCERN...TRANSITIONING
INTO MORE OF A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE. REGARDLESS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35590464 36590563 37370548 38130582 38440566 38470389
37560231 36360190 35140204 34870320 35140394 35590464
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/299TsHS
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