MD 1151 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328… FOR PORTIONS OF NEB/KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEB/KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...
VALID 060031Z - 060230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 328. AREAS TO THE E IN ERN NEB...AND S IN OTHER
PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF
NEW WW/S -- 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN EACH OF THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE EVOLVING EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WW 328.
ONE SUSTAINED TSTM CLUSTER IS DEVELOPING SWD BETWEEN COLBY AND HILL
CITY KS...IN PROXIMITY TO THE THE SWD-ADVANCING INTERSECTION POINT
BETWEEN A W/E CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N/S LEE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP SWD/SEWD INTO
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN KS. THE DDC 00Z RAOB
SAMPLED AROUND 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE MLCINH AND AROUND 35
KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ MAY ALSO FOCUS
CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION SWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATED
LARGE BUOYANCY SUSTAINING A SVR RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
COULD WARRANT LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WW AND/OR NEW WW ISSUANCE LATER
THIS EVENING.
FARTHER E ACROSS ERN PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB...LOOSELY ORGANIZING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE BEING FED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY SAMPLED BY
THE 00Z TOP RAOB. AS COLD POOLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND...AND
AS REAR INFLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMES FACILITATED AMIDST INTERACTING
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SVR-WIND/HAIL RISK COULD EXTEND E OF WW 328 INTO PARTS OF
ERN NEB -- WARRANTING NEW WW ISSUANCE.
ULTIMATELY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RELATIVELY
MODEST...AND THE SVR RISK OUTSIDE OF WW 328 IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO MCS/S TO EVOLVE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS EXISTS AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS. RELATED SVR POTENTIAL MAY
EXTEND OUTSIDE OF THE WW ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN KS AND ERN NEB.
..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39410164 40600153 41469964 41699747 41239664 39789658
39109717 38639823 38499982 38770090 39410164
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29vEP6W
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