MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS…EASTERN COLORADO…AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018 Areas affected...Portions of Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and Far Southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251856Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expecting to develop this afternoon with some of the storms likely becoming severe. Hail/wind are the main threats. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast throughout the morning over Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Just to the west of this storm cluster, storms are expected to develop along/near frontal boundaries stretching across northern Kansas and into eastern Colorado. Strong daytime heating (surface temperatures 90+ F) should help focus convective initiation near these boundaries and storms will form in a convectively conducive environment characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-50 knots. This should promote multicellular convection with rotating storms capable of producing severe hail/wind this afternoon and into the evening. These storms could organize upscale into a QLCS this evening and track south-southeast across far eastern Colorado and western/central Kansas. A watch is possible given the eventual likelihood of severe storms. ..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40249977 40430035 40380068 40040145 39800203 39680261 39500295 39160304 38770291 38300263 37640188 37580136 37560078 37509972 37689911 38079838 38209814 38389776 38659767 38869775 39149801 39539847 40249977
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