MD 1158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270025Z - 270230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible for the next hour or two with the supercell moving across east-central KS. A brief tornado is also possible. Isolated nature of the severe threat is expected to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A well-developed supercell is moving into Marion and McPherson counties in east-central KS. Recent surface analysis and visible satellite imagery shows a composite cold front/outflow boundary extending from very near SLN south-southeastward through EQA and then southeastward to just north of IDP. Marion/McPherson county supercell strengthened and produced a tornado as it interacted with this boundary back in SLN. Current storm motion is southeastward towards the composite boundary over southeast KS, which may result in additional brief tornadoes as the enhanced surface vorticity along the boundary is ingested into the storm. Some upscale growth is also possible, particularly if stronger storms end up developing along the boundary ahead of the supercells. However, given the weak instability downstream, an well-organized convective system is anticipated. Primary threats right now are large hail and damaging wind gusts, although, as previously mentioned, a brief tornado or two is possible. Severe threat is expected to stay isolated, precluding higher watch probabilities, but convective trends will still be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/27/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37529748 38249764 38649742 38739670 37739503 36809499 36809692 37529748
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