MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017
Areas affected...South central through eastern Kansas and adjacent
portions of western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292012Z - 292245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible as early as the
5-7 PM CDT time frame, which could be accompanied by a risk for
tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and potentially damaging wind
gusts. A watch probably will be needed once storm initiation become
more certain.
DISCUSSION...A stalled outflow boundary across portions of the
Missouri Ozarks into southern Kansas remains a potential focus for
rapid new thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Strong
heating of seasonably high boundary layer moisture content along
this boundary, beneath fairly steep mid-level lapse rates associated
with warm elevated mixed layer air, appears to be contributing to
CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This is occurring in the
presence of moderate to strong vertical shear associated with
veering winds with height from lower to mid-levels, beneath a belt
of 30-40 kt westerly 500 mb flow. And the environment appears more
than conducive to organized severe storm development, including
supercells at least initially.
Forcing to support any such development remains unclear, as the warm
elevated mixed layer air is also contributing to substantial
mid-level inhibition. Near the nose of the corridor of strongest
surface heating emanating from the higher Plains, the latest Rapid
Refresh indicates an area of locally enhanced low-level convergence
near/southwest of the Wichita area, which could provide a focus for
the initiation of storms late this afternoon. This is near/within a
broader zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection which
extends northward/eastward, toward the Kansas City area and Missouri
Ozarks. This could also provide support for the initiation of
storms, though this would seem most probable along the mid-level
thermal gradient to the north of the stronger capping,
near/southwest through southeast of the Kansas City metropolitan
area.
When/if storms do develop, a 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb jet may
contribute to sufficient low-level shear to support a risk for
tornadoes with any discrete storms.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/29/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38759818 39249567 38899403 37659408 37379650 36939805
37369889 38759818
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1nQNkWb
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