MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK.
Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern KS and northern OK.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...
Valid 300632Z - 300830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat with a band of thunderstorms will
continue to spread eastward/southeastward across the watch area and
is becoming mostly wind-driven. An additional watch may be needed
in the next few hours farther southeast across parts of northeastern
OK, southeastern KS, southwestern MO and/or northwestern AR as
convective trends in watch 383 warrant.
DISCUSSION...Convection has organized into a wavy/quasi-linear MCS
with embedded bows and outflow surges, located at 06Z roughly along
a TOP-AVK line. Severe gusts have been clocked at several observing
sites over the past couple hours, including HUT, SLN and AVK. At
525Z, a significant-severe (67-kt) gust struck the May Ranch mesonet
in northern Woods County OK, from a tail-end bow echo located
astride the KS/OK border. That activity has exhibited a pronounced
rear-inflow jet.
Activity will continue to be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates
and low-level moisture transport above the surface, with relatively
high theta-e in an elevated inflow layer. Preconvective VWP over
the area and planar LLJ forecasts indicate favorable inflow will
continue for at least a few more hours, despite the diabatically
driven strengthening of SBCINH. Modified soundings and model
soundings yield MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg and still have MLCAPE
exceeding 2000 J/kg near the KS/OK border, despite the SBCINH, with
values gradually decreasing northeastward. Northwesterly 40-50-kt
effective-shear vectors and mean-wind vectors aligned nearly
perpendicular to the convective orientation will support damaging-
wind potential. Forced ascent along the leading edge of cold pools
-- both smaller-scale and in aggregate across the complex -- will
continue to help to overcome CINH, maintaining portions of the MCS
at or near severe levels into north-central/northeastern OK and
east-central/southeastern KS. The potential remains for localized
surges of significant-severe wind as well within the broader
complex.
..Edwards.. 06/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36469946 36649845 36879828 37299831 37549834 37689760
38059711 38229705 38369657 38799648 38989697 39189684
39279524 38609499 36929506 36299595 36069766 36349915
36469946
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