MD 1193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHEAST NE…AND FAR NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Areas affected...Far northeast KS...far southeast NE...and far northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300635Z - 300900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible through 07-08Z across far northeast KS, far southeast NE into northwest MO. Thereafter, this activity should diminish in intensity as it moves to the southeast, reaching the Kansas City metro area by 10Z (5 AM). DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery showed the trailing portion of a convective outflow boundary, attendant to earlier storms in southwest IA, extended into far southeast NE. The storm moving southeast through far southeast NE (from Nemaha County into Richardson County) appeared to be located near the aforementioned outflow boundary. Meanwhile, additional storms were developing and moving through Riley and Marshall Counties KS into Pawnee and western Richardson Counties NE since 0545-0555Z. All of these storms were occurring within the northeast extent of residual moderate instability and sufficient effective bulk shear supporting organized storms. Low-level inflow into these aforementioned storms should eventually become cutoff from a nearly solid band of storms extending from north-central OK/south-central KS to near and south to southeast of the Kansas City metro, and result in diminishing storm intensities/severe potential. Until then, the residual moderate instability and forcing for ascent attendant to an eastward-moving MCV (located approximately east of KCNK at 0620Z) should prove favorable for one or two additional stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and/or locally strong wind gusts through 07-08Z. ..Peters/Edwards.. 06/30/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39149673 39689665 40339577 40349560 40139480 39909439 39629429 39429433 39329466 39259596 39149673
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2sY8JZn
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