MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KS…CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Areas affected...central KS...central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 140155Z - 140300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch to the east of severe thunderstorm watch #366 will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this evening shows a north-south oriented thunderstorm cluster from southwest NE into northwest KS. The North Platte ASOS recently observed a 76-kt gust at 842pm CDT. Surface analysis over central KS into central NE shows a moist boundary layer evident by dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 deg F. Although temperatures will gradually cool this evening, moderate instability resides over the discussion area. The 7pm CDT North Platte, NE observed sounding showed 2600 J/kg MLCAPE and an 8.5 700-500mb lapse rate. KUEX VAD has shown only a slight strengthening in 1-2km AGL flow over the past hour, but additional intensification of the LLJ is expected this evening, which should aid in northward moisture transport and isentropic lift. It is uncertain how far east a risk for severe gusts will exist before storms weaken and the environment becomes less supportive for severe gusts. ..Smith/Hart.. 07/14/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38300027 41349916 41299736 38319861 38300027
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1pQSy5z
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