SPC MD 1271

MD 1271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN KANSAS AND ADJACENT NRN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN KANSAS AND ADJACENT NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141125Z - 141330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL...MOSTLY MARGINAL...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH 12-15Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH A PERTURBATION
WITHIN THE BASE OF BROADLY CYCLONIC WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR GREAT BEND AND HUTCHINSON. 
AT THE SAME TIME...A ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION /AT AROUND 700
MB/ IN ITS WAKE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING DEVELOPING ARCING BANDS OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
PROBABLY IS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT CAPE FOR
PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION STILL APPEARS LARGE IN AT
LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE.

AT THIS TIME OF DAY...WITH THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  IT MAY BE STILL BE A NUMBER OF HOURS BEFORE INSOLATION
ALONG/NORTH OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER CONTRIBUTES TO SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF
INHIBITION TO ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY
NOT BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.  VERTICAL SHEAR...LARGELY DUE
TO VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 20-30 KT WESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW...APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. AND...IF
THIS OCCURS...IT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/GUYER.. 07/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...
AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36939512 37149666 37059841 36959988 37320141 38070209
            38550153 38299948 38869848 38629708 38399525 37699465
            36939512 

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