MD 1412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS…NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS…PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS…FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Areas affected...Portions of west-central Kansas...north-central Kansas...portions of northeast Kansas...far southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022020Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of storms developing near Hays, KS is expected to eventually congeal into a linear segment. Initial development that can remain discrete will pose a threat for severe hail and perhaps a tornado. With time, as storm coverage increases and cold pools congeal, the primary threat will become severe wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored for possible WW. DISCUSSION...A storm or two has recently initiated out of a cluster of agitated cumulus on visible satellite imagery near Hays, KS. Given the upstream ascent, evidenced by cirrus moving in from the southwest on visible satellite, this activity should continue to increase over the next few hours. Modest lapse rates near 6-6.5 C/km and effective deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts will support storm organization with isolated severe hail possible. A subtle differential heating boundary/wind shift draped across northern Kansas has enhanced the low-level hodograph curvature to a degree, if a storm can remain discrete and interact with this boundary, a tornado cannot be ruled out. However, as storm coverage increases, as depicted in much of the CAM guidance, storm interactions and upscale growth should limit tornado and hail potential. With time, an east/northeastward propagating linear segment will pose primarily a severe wind gust threat. Trends in convective mode/intensity will be monitored for possible WW issuance. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/02/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39089980 39599887 40159695 40039579 39379571 38569743 38279856 38109955 38300011 38770019 39089980
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