MD 0015 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018 Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 111020Z - 111415Z SUMMARY...A transition from rain to sleet/freezing rain to snow is anticipated across much of the region over the next several hours. Periodic heavy snow with snowfall rates around 1"/hr are possible after transition to all snow occurs. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 20 miles north of STJ (in far northwest MO) with a strong cold front extending southwestward from the low across southeast KS to another low in northwest OK. Strong low-level frontogenesis is contributing to a broad area of precipitation over much of western and central KS. Much of the precipitation over central KS is currently rain, but strong low-level cold advection is expected to quickly cool the 850mb to surface layer. As this occurs, a transition to more mixed precipitation, likely predominately sleet, is anticipated. This mixed precipitation phase is not expected to last long (i.e. less than 2 hours) as continued cold advection results in an eventual transition to snow. After the transition to snow occurs, periodic heavy snowfall (i.e. up to 1"/hr) is possible as strengthening mid-level frontogenesis (attendant to the mid-level trough) augments lift. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37899998 38979915 39789773 39889554 39069553 37439770 37029940 37169999 37899998
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Fs8B8G
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