MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018 Areas affected...Portions of southwest/central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060044Z - 060215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue to pose a primary threat of large hail this evening, although strong gusty winds will be possible too. Still, the severe threat is not expected to be organized enough to necessitate a watch. DISCUSSION...Aided by enhanced convergence/isentropic ascent along a composite cold front/outflow boundary, a cluster of strong to severe storms has expanded across central Kansas this evening. As the low-level jet further intensifies this evening, a few more cells may develop to the southwest, generally in the direction of Dodge City. The 00Z DDC sounding sampled around 50 kt of west/southwest 500mb flow, which is supporting some initial supercellular evolution. Combined with MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg, instances of large hail appear possible. However, south/southeastward advance of the front, combined with some dry air and nocturnal inhibition slowing parcel ascent slightly, should lead to cells becoming progressively elevated atop the frontal surface. Therefore, the overall severe threat should be limited enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Picca/Thompson.. 10/06/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37839907 37729982 37740033 37880034 38050014 38319984 38789927 39499852 39709812 39739783 39719731 39529701 39189688 38269760 37839907
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