SPC MD 1669

MD 1669 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ADJACENT MISSOURI VALLEY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/ADJACENT MISSOURI VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 092327Z - 100130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. 
AFTER PERHAPS SOME INITIAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 02-03Z.

DISCUSSION...A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ONGOING ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPENING COLD
INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY 850 MB JET
/40-50+ KT/ ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION.

INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...FORMING IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...MAY POSE SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY MAY BE SHORT...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING QUICKLY
UNDERCUT BY THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD COINCIDE WITH
LINGERING POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED.

..KERR/GUYER.. 09/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...
AMA...

LAT...LON   36270027 37539799 38929562 39349472 38569374 36969473
            35149873 34180123 35620199 36270027 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2cqCo7j