MD 1767 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR N-CNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN SEP 06 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062344Z - 070115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AT 2340Z...VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING TCU ACROSS
N-CNTRL KS...WITH ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOTED NEAR
CNK AND NW OF SLN. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT AND PREFONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...THOUGH RELATIVELY
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED. ANY
STRONGER CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GIVEN THE
HOT...WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME AS TO
WHETHER ANY CELLS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY LARGE/WELL-ORGANIZED TO
POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WET MICROBURST THREAT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING COMMENCES.
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39089926 39409868 39939805 39939753 39939712 39359681
38869710 38579736 38449813 38419859 38549900 38759929
38979951 39089926
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1JKP4e2
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