MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101823Z - 102000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN 19-21Z IN VICINITY OF I-80
BETWEEN NORTH PLATTE /LBF/ AND GRAND ISLAND /GRI/ NEB. VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS WITH HAIL
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING DATA AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST
OF A DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NEB/KS BORDER /SOUTHEAST OF
MCK/ SSWWD TO JUST EAST OF HLC TO WEST OF DDC INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE OK/NORTH TX PANHANDLES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO BE REACHED...WHILE WAA
LOCATED AROUND 700 MB APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THE KS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS KS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SUCH THAT THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE SHORT TERM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB...WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW CELLS FORMING
FROM CUSTER/SHERMAN/BUFFALO COUNTIES TO WEBSTER COUNTY. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE 700-MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...
THOUGH AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 500-MB SPEED MAX...AND LIFT ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME
MORE VIGOROUS AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR SUGGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
BETWEEN LBF-GRI...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TO THE S/SE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEB INTO NORTHERN KS. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..PETERS/HART.. 09/10/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 41170074 41169889 41009759 40379691 39559632 39059626
38699676 38659848 38790007 39290052 40440098 41170074
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1nOTviQ
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