MD 1824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1824
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271944Z - 272215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING SEVERE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION...AT 1940Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NE INTO KS NEAR KSLN TO KICT AND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OK (FROM WEST OF KTUL TO EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO).
TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
DECREASING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE...AS A DRY SLOT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEAST
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS APPROXIMATELY 1-2 HOURS OF SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD BE REALIZED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA (EASTERN PART OF THE GLD COUNTY WARNING
AREA AND THE CENTRAL PART OF DDC COUNTY WARNING AREA) INDICATED
DESTABILIZATION (MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG) IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 60S WITHIN RESIDUAL MOISTURE. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT IN THE DRY SLOT AND
EXIT REGION OF A 70-85 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB JET EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL KS WILL FURTHER AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. THESE PROCESSES ARE BEING DETECTED IN
COOLING CLOUD TOPS (PER INFRARED IMAGERY) AND AGITATED CU FORMATION
IN WEST-CENTRAL KS ALONG THE APPARENT PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
STRONG WINDS /45-50 KT PER AREA RADAR-BASED WIND PROFILERS) LOCATED
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TRANSFER THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SPORADIC IMPACT FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.
..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 11/27/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39470004 38899998 38079993 37629995 37239984 37409762
38129706 38999715 39839730 40839837 40280011 39470004
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2fFMtNh
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