MD 1996 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NERN NM…THE TX/OK PANHANDLES…NWRN OK…MUCH OF KS…FAR SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...NWRN
OK...MUCH OF KS...FAR SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 270118Z - 270715Z
SUMMARY...ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES IN
EXCESS OF 0.05 INCHES PER 3 HOURS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF KS
INTO FAR SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND SWRN IA THROUGH THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTED IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF KS
AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN IA. PER 01Z SFC OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN AOB FREEZING BEHIND A SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. A PRONOUNCED 9-10 DEG C WARM NOSE IS CENTERED AROUND 850-800
MB PER 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA KS AND AMARILLO TX ALONG WITH A
SHALLOW NEAR-SFC SUB-FREEZING LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING
RAIN WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY PTYPE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SLEET BECOMING AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY TOWARDS 07Z AS
THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SFC INCREASES IN DEPTH.
FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH/HR REMAIN POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY IN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND SWRN IA WHERE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS REFLECTIVITY BANDS IN EXCESS OF 35 DBZ ARE OCCURRING.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND NWRN
OK...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES NEWD AROUND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE
ADVANCING STEADILY SWD ACROSS THIS AREA...THIS ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN PER THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO TX AND VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THE
FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT ERODES
AND THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR-SFC SUB-FREEZING LAYER INCREASES.
..GLEASON.. 11/27/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34510230 34140462 34590499 35700499 36960197 38040009
38859878 40019678 40689580 41549485 41299397 40049482
39059564 37779678 36409825 35230009 34510230
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1MUnVqF
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