MD 0215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEB AND NORTHEASTERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEB AND NORTHEASTERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150236Z - 150430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO WILL EXIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...IN
TANDEM WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING
FRONT...HAS YIELDED AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB
AND NORTHERN KS THIS EVENING. THE 00Z TOP RAOB REVEALED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS VERTICAL ACCELERATION
IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST KUEX VWP DEPICTS
VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF
WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. ALTHOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE
850-700MB LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 700
MB SUGGEST STORM SPLITTING AND OVERALL DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE
MODE...ISOLATED CELLS ACQUIRING MID-LEVEL ROTATION MAY BE CAPABLE OF
A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL REPORTS LATE THIS EVENING. INDEED...ZDR NEAR 0
DB /COLLOCATED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CC/ WITHIN THE REFLECTIVITY CORE OF
THE JEWELL CO KS STORM MOST LIKELY INDICATES EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF
SMALL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES.
NONETHELESS...BL COOLING AND A LACK OF GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
THREAT...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..PICCA/DIAL.. 03/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39069749 39169873 39459917 39729910 40179894 40499861
40609812 40669702 40419594 39909550 39399559 39119642
39069749
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1Wmi0jC
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