MD 0227 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 47… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017
Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern
Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...
Valid 010401Z - 010600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues.
SUMMARY...A considerable increase in the threat for tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds appears to be developing across the region
late this evening. A strong tornado, especially across far
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms has organized
across western portions of Tornado Watch 47. The latest KICT and
KEAX WSR-88D data indicate several of these cells are rapidly
becoming supercellular, aided by approximately 50 kt of effective
shear. VWP data from KINX and KSGF indicate 0-1-km storm-relative
helicity upwards of 500-600 m2/s2, suggesting an environment very
favorable for low-level mesocylogenesis. With the base of a
steep-lapse rate plume only 2000-3000 ft above ground level, rapid
updraft accelerations closer to the surface will further enhance the
tornadic potential late this evening into the overnight. As such, as
these cells continue to transit eastward into a corridor of slightly
greater low-level moisture, the threat for all severe hazards
(including the potential for a strong tornado) will increase.
..Picca.. 03/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36399694 37269693 38349460 38359314 37969261 36839301
36179488 36099652 36399694
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