MD 0234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR I-70 CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Areas affected...I-70 Corridor from eastern KS through MO into west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 270251Z - 270415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected after 03Z. Elevated supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging wind will be possible. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Regional 00Z soundings across the central/southern Plains depict relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, with seasonably rich low-level moisture noted across portions of OK/TX. Meanwhile, short-term guidance and area VWPs continue to depict an increasing southwesterly low-level jet from western OK into portions of KS, which will favor increasing ascent (as noted with gradually expanding radar echoes across KS) to the north of a frontal boundary draped from northern OK into MO. This ascent, combined with continued moisture transport into the region, is expected to result in thunderstorm development after 03Z somewhere near the I-70 corridor from northeast KS into MO. Moderate instability (MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range) and strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt for storms based around 800 mb) will support the potential for one or more elevated supercells to develop overnight. Large hail (locally very large) will be the primary threat, though locally damaging wind will also be possible, especially with any forward-propagating clusters that evolve with time. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 04Z to address these threats. ..Dean/Grams.. 03/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39159705 39649431 39809247 39919086 39838952 38308956 38189262 38179378 38149595 38289700 38789719 39159705
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