MD 0318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018 Areas affected...far southeast NE and northeast KS into portions of southern IA and northern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 022208Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase through the evening hours. Large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible. A watch will likely be needed soon across the MCD area. DISCUSSION...Convection was beginning to develop along the baroclinic zone in southwest IA early this evening. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates has resulted in a strongly unstable airmass with SBCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. These initial storms likely will lift to the north of the front and pose a hail threat as they become increasingly elevated on the cool side of the boundary. However any cell that can remain discrete along the boundary will be in a low level kinematic environment supportive of low level rotation and a tornado can not be ruled out. Later this evening, the bowing line segment lifting east/northeast across KS will track into the MCD area and strong, damaging winds will become the main threat. However, low level flow will remain adequate such that embedded mesovortex circulations will continue to pose a tornado threat. ..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/02/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41519390 41249507 40859580 40329655 40019670 39769665 39549641 39279578 39209527 39229474 39539391 39949313 40419247 40869215 41329212 41529251 41549357 41519390
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