MD 0398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017
Areas affected...South-central to northeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021016Z - 021215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be issued by 1030-11Z for
portions of south-central to northeast TX. All severe hazards will
be possible through this morning into the afternoon across the
discussion area.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing strong to severe storms located in central and
southwest portions of WW 107 are embedded within an MCS with the
likelihood for MCV formation in this complex, given an extended
period of latent heat release. Meanwhile, additional cloud-top
cooling per IR satellite imagery and reflectivity developing from
the vicinity of KAUS to KHOU is occurring within strengthening
low-level warm air advection on the north edge of the surface warm
sector. A strengthening and veering low-level jet has maintained
rich moisture return across south-central into central and southeast
TX overnight, with ongoing destabilization expected to persist
through the morning into the afternoon across the discussion area.
Strengthening vertically veering winds with the approach of the
mid-upper level trough into southwest and central TX will sustain
strong bulk shear and increasing low-level shear to support both
bowing lines and supercells. Surface-based supercells will become
more probable across the northern extent of the warm sector toward
midday. There will be a gradual increase in damaging winds, hail,
and tornado threats through the day.
..Peters/Thompson.. 04/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 28839976 30389970 31639779 32359682 33159548 33339477
32189468 31159434 30559524 29759704 29349770 28749902
28489957 28839976
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2nweUyA
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