MD 0544 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156… FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…AND PART OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...northern Louisiana...southern Arkansas...and part of northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156... Valid 220916Z - 221045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156 continues. SUMMARY...The overall severe weather threat should continue to diminish gradually into the early morning from northeast TX to northwest MS. Isolated strong winds and/or a hail threat will be the primary threats, with any of the remaining stronger storms. DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced surface boundary has continued to advance southward across much of far northwest MS and into southern AR, while the TX portion of this wind shift spreads east/southeast across northeast and central TX. Vertically veering winds exist across much of the pre-frontal environment with strong effective bulk shear sufficient for storm organization. The strongest instability remains across central and east TX into western/northern LA and southern AR that would support a severe-weather threat. However, weakening trends in mid-level CAPPI data and warming cloud tops suggest storms in the TX/LA portion of WW 156 are gradually diminishing in intensity. Meanwhile, the leading edge of a cluster of storms located across south-central and southeast AR may remain capable of producing locally strong wind gusts and/or hail in the short term, as this activity moves from southeast AR into the adjacent portion of MS. Pre-frontal VWP data indicated southwesterly 40-45 kt winds from around 0.5 km to around 1 km above ground level. These wind speeds plus an eastward storm motion at 35 kt could result in stronger winds to reach the surface. However, the downstream environment is more stable and could inhibit the severe-weather threat with eastward extent into MS. ..Peters.. 04/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32049546 32699455 33019392 33679291 33829216 33969149 34079107 34039078 33799045 33249064 32559176 32089282 31549382 31199402 31059452 31329503 32049546
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2p29z3t
Be First to Comment