MD 0578 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156… FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
VALID 100306Z - 100400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 156...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IN EASTERN PARTS OF WW 156 HAS EVOLVED INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS WHILE GRADUALLY BEING UNDERCUT BY A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL EMANATING FROM PREVIOUS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. THIS UNDERCUTTING HAS TENDED TO DECREASE STORM
INTENSITIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS WESTERN IOWA OVER THE PAST
HOUR...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS EAST OF THIS CONVECTION SUGGEST A
CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH NEAR MADISON/CUMING COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK IN THIS AREA...BUT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE IN WW 156...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...OVERTURNING AND LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION HAS EFFECTIVELY
ENDED THE SEVERE THREAT THERE. PARTS OF WW 156 MAY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE EARLY IN THIS AREA.
..COOK/COOK.. 05/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...LBF...
LAT...LON 42049803 42269765 42439702 42509598 42569534 42539484
42359449 42069433 41659429 41279428 40799439 40369453
40139471 39959520 39929565 40079598 40429604 40789607
41289623 41689659 41749707 41739775 41749816 41849835
42039813 42049803
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1nE3dAw
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