MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182… FOR EASTERN KANSAS…WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western and Northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...
Valid 150358Z - 150600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
eastern Kansas and western to northern Missouri over the next few
hours. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
threats. Weather watch issuance is being considered to the east of
WW 182.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low across
southeast Kansas with a surface trough extending northeastward from
the low into northeast Kansas and north-central Missouri. A large
MCS is located along the surface trough with several organized line
segments ongoing. The airmass ahead of the surface trough is moist
with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. In addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer
shear with speed shear in the mid-levels and directional shear in
the boundary layer. The WSR-88D VWP at Kansas City has less
deep-layer shear but also has strong directional shear in the
boundary layer. This wind profile will be favorable for continued
multicell line segment formation. The more intense line segments
should be able to produce damaging wind gusts and hail. As
instability slowly decreases across the region in the overnight
period, the severe threat should become more isolated. But for parts
of the line that remain severe, a weather watch is being considered.
..Broyles.. 05/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39519452 37989651 37219610 37479471 38089352 39149140
39939101 40389126 40589192 39979361 39519452
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