SPC MD 594

MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164… FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164...

VALID 110213Z - 110345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THE WATCH OVER THE PAST HOUR.

DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW 164.  A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED
PRIMARILY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...UNDERCUT FROM OUTFLOWS RESULTING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RAP POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE REGION IS SUSTAINING
THIS ACTIVITY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE INSTANCES OF 1-1.5
INCH HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
TIME.

CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  LATER INTO THE EVENING...THE INCREASE
OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40189673 39839717 39649755 39589818 39629885 39709932
            40079960 40469948 40859921 41069882 41619839 41989785
            42049728 42039693 41919656 41559633 41009638 40589650
            40189673 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1T4Sehn