MD 0598 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NRN/ERN KS…WRN MO…SERN NEB…AND SW IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...SERN NEB...AND SW IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 110702Z - 110900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE PERHAPS
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED AREAS OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
ONGOING... AND DEVELOPING...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS
ENHANCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /40-50+ KT/ ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THAT IS LIKELY PEAKING IN STRENGTH.
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROBABLE THROUGH
09-12Z...FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONSOLIDATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF
WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ADVECTING
TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS MAY GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO
SIZABLE CAPE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED
BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS...NOW OVER OKLAHOMA/ ADVECT NORTHWARD.
THROUGH DAYBREAK...MUCH OF THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER. SHEAR WITHIN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS PROBABLY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL. THIS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SCATTERED OR SPARSE
IN COVERAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY HINGE ON FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION
AND UPSCALE GROWTH...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...BUT CURRENTLY SEEMS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARD OR AFTER DAYBREAK.
..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38749924 39749869 40439666 40589492 39219352 37949442
38399570 38559686 38419827 38749924
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1URMcp1
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