MD 0600 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166… FOR PARTS OF NERN KS…SE NEB…SW IA…WRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN KS...SE NEB...SW IA...WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...
VALID 111020Z - 111215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL
PERSIST BEYOND DAYBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI
VALLEY... SPREADING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND ST.
JOSEPH MO AREAS.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS WITHIN AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT INCLUDES AT LEAST A BROAD LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS IS FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION /ROUGHLY AROUND 700 MB/...ON THE NOSE OF A
NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR. LATEST RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. JOSEPH THROUGH 11-13Z.
ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL WEAKENING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW...EMANATING FROM A RESIDUAL WEDGE OF
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND
70F/ OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAY MAINTAIN
VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITHIN THIS EVOLVING CLUSTER.
AT THE SAME TIME...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF LOWER/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHAT/IF ANY LONGER TERM IMPACT THE EVOLVING
COLD POOL TO THE NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO WILL HAVE ON THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE EVOLVING DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL. TO THIS POINT...STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE MOSTLY
RELATED TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION ACCOMPANYING THE
CONVECTION. PROSPECTS FOR QUICK WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER
DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG A STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL...ALSO APPEAR
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS...IF IT DOES NOT INCREASE.
..KERR.. 05/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40309639 41019546 40919369 39999330 39239315 38199301
37029358 37709466 38259517 38409605 38569663 40309639
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1Wpf9u2
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