MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN KS…NRN MO…SRN IA…FAR WRN IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...NRN MO...SRN IA...FAR WRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131752Z - 131945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY
MID-AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IA THROUGH EASTERN KS. DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AROUND 19Z.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE
VICINITY OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS EARLY CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA
AND NE KS.
OTHERWISE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT FROM
SRN IA INTO CNTRL/ERN KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH MORE.
DESPITE POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
GREATER THAN 7.0 DEG C/KM AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 18Z...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD BUBBLING BENEATH RAPIDLY ERODING
CAP ACROSS CNTRL INTO NE KS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SOME
BACKING FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT A QUICK PROGRESSION TOWARD BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD /DCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J PER KG/ RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNDRAFTS AND
FAVORING COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OR
WITH ANY CELLS THAT REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NRN MO/WRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER
IMPULSE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AROUND 19Z.
..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
DDC...
LAT...LON 40729492 41319278 41329171 41189084 40799052 40399066
39699133 39109253 38449402 37899546 37709615 37609712
37629731 37709797 38099855 38349868 38529860 38899835
39279784 40109620 40729492
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1YqqebF
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