MD 0626 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174… FOR SE KS…NCNTRL MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NCNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...
VALID 132214Z - 140015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM SE KS
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW 174
SHOULD CONTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE 0100Z
EXPIRATION AND A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1011 MB LOW OVER NE MO WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NCNTRL MO INTO ECNTRL KS. A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S F IN SE KS TO THE UPPER
40S F IN NE MO. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE MO
WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ALREADY MARGINAL. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE WSR-88D VWP AT KANSAS CITY SHOWS O-6 K SHEAR NEAR 50
KT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL STORM MODE WITH SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION.
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. DUE
TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -15
TO -18C...HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40179231 39139426 38769570 38219697 37959738 37529777
37179776 37039747 37159686 37349585 37899426 38249309
38409279 38989209 39849142 40279164 40179231
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1OsqD7N
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