MD 0674 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017
Areas affected...Portions of northern KS and southern NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100015Z - 100215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A very isolated threat for hail/wind may exist for the
next several hours along a stalled front. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has recently formed along the KS/NE
border along a weak front. Low and mid-level flow across this region
will remain weaker compared to locations farther west in closer
proximity to an upper low over the Southwest. Still, strong diurnal
heating, a shallow moist boundary layer, and weak convergence along
the front should support the continuation of isolated convection for
the next several hours. MLCAPE generally ranges from 1000-1500 J/kg
along and south of the front, and recent VWP from KUEX shows around
35 kt of 0-6 km shear. This should be sufficient for a very isolated
large hail and strong to locally damaging wind risk through mid
evening. Thereafter, continued diurnal cooling of the boundary layer
will likely result in any persistent convection becoming elevated.
With current expectations that any severe threat will remain very
isolated, watch issuance is not expected.
..Gleason/Edwards.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39309792 39219881 39239946 40129951 40309935 40589827
40589619 40129583 39879586 39309792
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qZZJjw
Be First to Comment